Is Constitution Hill Just Too Short to Back at Aintree? 

Constitution Hill

The 2023 Aintree Grand National Festival is fast approaching, and, as you might expect, the Grand National (15th April) will absorb the majority of the attention. But it should not be overlooked the extent that the festival has grown in recent years, fulfilling a role as a kind of curtain-closer for the jumps season in UK racing. Sure, there’s a handful of other decent events in April, and there will be quality on show at the Punchestown Festival (25th-29th April) in Ireland. But for many horses, Aintree will be the last chance at glory until next autumn or winter. And one who falls into that category is the undoubted best hurdler on the planet – Constitution Hill.

Nicky Henderson’s superstar is one for the ages, with the 6yo showing again at Cheltenham last month that he is one of the supreme talents in British racing this decade. It wasn’t a great renewal of the Champion Hurdle in terms of the quality of the field, but Constitution Hill made very good horses like State Man look very ordinary. He is unbeaten in rules races under Henderson, with his sole defeat coming when he was a pointer. He is, of course, beloved of horse racing betting punters, particularly those that backed him into 4/11 before the Champion Hurdle on the 14th March.

A hot favourite for the Aintree Hurdle

Constitution Hill leads the betting for the Aintree Hurdle on 13th April. The race will feature a couple of his rivals from the Champion Hurdle, including Zanahyir and I Like to Move It. But broadly speaking, it’s an inferior card, missing the likes of State Man and Vauban. It should come as no surprise, then, to see that his odds are even shorter than those he had for the Champion Hurdle, coming in at 1/4 or thereabouts. That’s an indictment of Constitution Hill’s incredible talent, but it’s also a price that will put off casual punters.

Is it too short? Not in terms of Constitution Hill’s talent – it seems about right. But such short prices in horse racing tend to match up with risk appetite. In the ITV coverage of the festival, you will certainly see footage of high-rolling punters sticking five or six-figure sums on Constitution Hill in the hope of making a quick 25% profit. But for the average punter – the type who sticks a fiver or tenner on a race – they will be looking elsewhere.

Douvan showed that disaster can strike the market leader

We should remember that nothing is guaranteed in racing, particularly jumps racing, where there is always a looming fence or hurdle ready to break punters’ hearts. You can think back to Douvan in the 2017 Queen Mother Champion Chase. The Willie Mullins-trained gelding went off at a price of 2/9 – shorter than what Constitution Hill is for the Aintree Hurdle – and duly finished 7th of 9 runners.

Douvan was found to be lame after the race, but that would be no consolation to those who backed him to the tune of millions. Of course, there’s nothing to say that Constitution Hill isn’t remarkably fit and firing, but even the best horses in the world – and Douvan was that – can have unforeseen problems.

Of course, there’s every chance that Constitution Hill simply does the business. He’s already the odds-on favourite for the Champion Hurdle 2024 – a race almost a year away. Chances are he blitzes a weakish field at Aintree, and then team Henderson goes on to plot another successful campaign the next season. But those odds are short for any horse. And punters will always run the gauntlet of blindly following the markets in a discipline where anything can happen, for relatively little gain. Those odds certainly aren’t for everyone.